At our annual market update seminar in January, we dove deep into where the real estate market has been—and where it’s headed. If you missed the session or want a quick recap, here are the key takeaways from our 2024 review and 2025 forecast for the Greater Princeton area.
📉 2024 Was the Lowest Transaction Year in Recent Memory
2024 marked the lowest volume of real estate transactions both nationally and locally since we started tracking modern data. In West Windsor alone, just 154 single-family homes sold—down from 493 in 2019. Even nationally, it was a record low year for home sales. The culprit? Not a lack of demand, but a historic lack of supply.
📦 Inventory Is Increasing—But Not in New Jersey
While inventory is ticking up nationally, New Jersey is still deeply undersupplied. Compared to pre-pandemic levels, New Jersey inventory is down 61%, the largest drop in the country. In our local Trenton-Princeton segment, inventory fell from 1,389 homes in 2016 to just 442 at the end of 2024.
🏗️ Why Isn’t Inventory Rebounding?
New Jersey is a built-out state. With limited land for new development, most future construction will be infill in urban areas. Plus, homeowners locked into 2-3% mortgage rates have little incentive to sell.
📈 No Crash Coming: Market Will Remain Stable
According to housing analyst Bill McBride, a crash isn’t in the cards. Why? Because real estate in New Jersey is job-sensitive, not interest rate-sensitive. With strong employment in Mercer and Middlesex Counties—fueled by institutions like Princeton University, J&J, and tech sector growth—buyers are active. Unemployment in Trenton is just 3.6%, well below the state average.
📊 West Windsor: Market Still on Fire
Median SFH price crossed $1M for the first time ever (up from $563K in 2012).
Bidding wars are still common, with average sales at 105% of asking.
Condos/townhouses saw median prices jump to $785K (boosted by new construction).
Absorption rate remains low, around 2 months—still a seller’s market.
🧭 What’s Driving Demand in 2025?
Schools and Jobs are now the top buyer priorities.
Convenience & Lifestyle matter more than ever—buyers want to live near town centers, train lines, and job hubs.
Affordability is relative. While we're still more affordable than NYC-adjacent counties like Bergen or Morris, the gap is closing.
🔮 2025 Forecast: More of the Same—With Slight Relief
Expect more listings in 2025 than in 2024, but don’t count on a dramatic shift. Prices will likely continue to rise, albeit at a slower pace, and buyers will remain active—especially for homes near train lines, top-ranked schools, and town centers.
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